Scottsdale homes on the uptick

Scottsdale Residential Report- for month of February

Rather than post the usual statistical data for the month of February I decided I would send the below excerpt from the Wall Street Journal. This article confirms what I have been saying in prior posts and thought it might be good to see this from an unbiased source.

IV. Rise In Phoenix Housing Shows Path For Other Cities, The Wall Street Journal, 03/13/12

PHOENIX -- As home prices continue to drop in most cities, a nascent real-estate rebound here holds lessons for the rest of the country.

This sprawling desert metropolis was one of the hardest hit housing markets during the bust. Phoenix home prices declined 55% from 2006 through the end of 2011, and Arizona's foreclosure rate jumped to No. 3 in the nation in 2009. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners are underwater, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth.

Now real-estate economists across the country are studying an early but surprisingly broad Phoenix turnaround. The sharp drop in home prices has brought new buyers into the market. Unlike other markets where housing recoveries have been snuffed out by big overhangs of homes for sale and foreclosed properties, inventories are lean here.

"Phoenix has hit a bottom," says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist who was one of the first to warn six years ago that prices in overbuilt metros were poised to fall.

The nation's hard-hit housing markets face a tough act: engineering a housing recovery without traditional trade-up buyers, many of whom are either unwilling or unable to sell because of huge price declines.

Phoenix has found a viable formula. Low prices are igniting demand from first-time buyers and investors who are converting the homes to rentals. The local economy is on the upswing with several big employers like Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. hiring again, which is further increasing demand for housing. And the region is benefiting from a surge of buyers from Canada who are using their favorable exchange rate to scoop up bargains in the desert.

HAVE WE HIT THE BOTTOM OF PRICE DECLINES?

I observe a lot of people and they are often asking where is the bottom for declining home values in Phoenix/ Scottsdale area. Well i don't know and to say otherwise is merely a guess. However sometimes guessing can be fun so here goes.
I think there will be more downward trending in some areas through the next months until December 2008. Downward from what is the key question? To me that means downward from current list prices as their is still too much inventory and still it is often times overpriced. More foreclosures are also adding to the downward pressures in sales and leasing.

This is the time to buy, you just need to know what a good price is and the methodologies to determine such. I remember an old saying, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered!
If you buy now or over the next 6 months and hold the home for at least 5 years you will most likely be very happy you bought when you did. After all that has historically been the case for the 30 prior years in Arizona.

The end of another year !

Well it's that time again and always grateful to have made it through another year!
I hope all my fellow bloggers had a great holiday season and hopefully 2008 will be a better year for the real estate market.

I will try to find some time and gaze into my and other pundits crystal balls and who knows maybe I will go out on a limb and make a forecast for the Scottsdale luxury marketplace. I do know that prices have been coming down and continue to see downward pressure especially in areas where there is excessive inventory.

Properties that are not the "best and brightest" are seeing even more pressure to adjust as Days on Market accumulate and sellers languish.
Homes in Scottsdale, of which there are 1484 currently on the market, priced over $1mm at current absorption rates results in a 32 month inventory.
www.PremierAZHomes.com