Where is The Bottom ?

The question hanging on everyone's lips is how much longer will Phoenix area homeowners have to wait before home prices stop falling?

The following is an excerpt from a professor at Arizona State University School of Real Estate who has been a favorite muse of mine.

I expect the median home price and actual Phoenix house price to intersect late in 2008 or early 2009, which, is approximately where house prices would have been without the big run-up in 2004 and 2005.
The drop in actual home prices won't necessarily stop when it hits the median home price trend line, but could overshoot it. Even if that happens, home prices would eventually get back close to the long-term trend.
If the economy is weak and if financing remains a problem that could cause actual home prices to fall below the median home price trend line, at least temporarily.
At that point, the difference between actual home prices and the median trend line is not so much a market imbalance as it is a problem caused by the broader economy and financial markets.
At some point, when home prices continue to go down, the fundamentals of supply and demand get into balance and the market is at bottom.